Friday, August 31, 2012

How Does a Trader Who Runs from Risk achieve THIS Track Record?

How Does a Trader Who Runs from Risk Achieve THIS Track Record?
Peter Brandt is the "Real McCoy"

August 28, 2012

By Elliott Wave International

In the late '70s, Peter Brandt emptied his trading accounts several times. He'd lose a string of trades, then refund his account, then "wipe out" all over again.
 
But he persisted because he knew he was meant for a trading career. His determination paid off.In 1982, a currency chart "sang a song" for Brandt. By that time he had saved his earnings and supplied his trading account with a healthy sum. 

The currency trade worked out very well. After that trade, he believed he could call himself a competent full-time trader.
 
Eventually, Peter Brandt's trading earned an annual 42% return over an 18-year period.
Did he achieve this by "swinging for the fences" on every trade? No. In fact, he believes that successful speculation requires strict risk-management. 

One other message became clear when I recently called and spoke with Brandt: successful speculation is also about managing yourself.

Here's an excerpt from our Q&A:

------------------

Q: What's the human factor and why is it so important to successful trading?
The biggest barrier to profitable trading is not the markets themselves. It's not other traders. It's not high frequency trading operations. It's not the Wall Street trading machine out to get us. The biggest hurdle is ourselves. We have met the enemy, and the enemy is ourselves.

The human element comes into play immediately when an individual thinks he or she can make their living from trading. The human components that drive this mentality include pride, unrealistic expectations, wishful thinking, greed, disconnected hope.
If an aspiring trader can learn from and survive the mistakes of the first three to five years, they will finally figure out the real rules of the game...Most aspiring traders with four or five years of experience who know what they must do will readily agree that their real problem is actually doing what they must do. It is said that successful trading is an uphill run or upstream swim against human nature. How true!
Q. Risk management is very important to you as a trader, why? How do professional traders view risk differently from beginners?
I see this in two manifestations. First, professional traders expect to have losses -- most lose more often than they win. They build losses into their processes and expectations. They factor losses into the equation.

Second, while the default expectation for professional traders is a losing trade, the default expectation of a beginner is for a winner. As a result, professional traders build aggressive risk management protocols into their trading operations.
One of the best traders I have ever known was a man named Dan Markey, who mentored me at the Chicago Board of Trade. He once told me that his job as a trader was as simple as liquidating every trade that closed at a loss. He focused on his losers. He ignored his winners.
Q: What steps did you take that led you to your successful track record of 42% over 18 years?
This is not easy to answer, mainly because I don't want to give myself credit for any success I have achieved.
First, I didn't need to make money from trading when I broke into futures. So that pressure was absent. I had income from several very large accounts. My proprietary trading started four years into my career in the markets.
Second, I had two very wise mentors. These were guys who told me about all the landmines I would encounter. They directed me to less risky paths. They were also very excellent traders and I could observe their habits.
Third, I stumbled across classical charting principles. Every successful trader has an approach that fits their personality, level of capitalization and risk tolerance. Some beginners never find a niche. I found a niche early on.
Fourth, I didn't have my ego tied to every trade. I was able to take losses in stride.
Finally, I got lucky on a big score within the first two years of my proprietary trading. Now, people can say that luck is a process of a lot of things that come before it. But, luck is luck. I had a hunch and I bet a bunch -- and I was right. I might have been wrong and the outcomes could have been very different.
I should also say that I'm a sequential thinker. For me that works because I go through the mental process of accounting for all the contingencies I can think of. If this happens, I've planned my response. If that happens, I've got my other response planned.

Learn more about Brandt -- a veteran trader and one of a select few contributors to Bob Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist -- in this exclusive FREE report:

Foundations of Successful Trading: Insights on Becoming a Consistently Successful Trader from Peter Brandt.

Whether you are an average investor, a novice trader, or an industry professional, you stand to benefit from what Peter Brandt has to say. You can learn more about Brandt and gain insights on his consistently successful approach to market speculation in this free 16-page excerpt from Part I of his book, "Foundations of Successful Trading."

Download your free report and learn what leads to a lifetime of trading success >>

Friday, August 24, 2012

U.S. Economy: The Financial Tectonic Plates Are Shifting Once Again

U.S. Economy: The Financial Tectonic Plates Are Shifting Once Again 
 

Financial changes can happen with lightning speed 
August 23, 2012

By Elliott Wave International

 

History books call the period after the War of 1812 "The Era of Good Feelings."
America was a young nation that had a sense of purpose. National political strife was at a minimum; optimism was in the air.

Major advances in technology and engineering brought the country turnpikes for easier travel and "The Canal Craze" for more efficient commerce.

Once the Erie Canal became an obvious commercial success, imitators borrowed heavily to build more. Eventually the U.S. had constructed 4,500 miles of canals.

Alas, the railroads arrived and made canals obsolete. Canal investors were ruined.
Swift economic changes have happened throughout U.S. history. And they continue to happen still.
Major economic changes come via technology: consider the automobile, telephone, radio, television, the computer and the Internet (to name a few).

At other times, economic changes are systemic.

The Next Major Economic Change May Come from the Credit Craze

Deflation is always accompanied by a preceding credit build-up.
The Era of Good Feelings came to a screeching halt when America's first deflationary depression occurred from 1835 - 1842. Before then, credit had boomed.

America's second major deflationary depression was the Great Depression that began in 1929. That was also preceded by a credit boom.

Today's credit boom dwarfs those earlier examples.
The March 2008 Elliott Wave Theorist elaborates on the next potential shift in the financial tectonic plates.
Over the past 300 years the bigger the investment mania, the faster has been the ensuing collapse. The peaks of 1968 and 1835 led to deep bear markets of six and seven years, respectively. The wilder Roaring 'Twenties, capping an 87-year rise, led to a deeper bear market, yet it was faster, lasting less than three years. The even more dramatic South Sea Bubble, which peaked in 1720, led to a still deeper bear market, yet it was even faster, lasting only two years. So given that the past ten years of topping has produced the craziest overvaluation, the largest number of bubbles and the most persistent period of market-related optimism ever, by a huge margin, I am more than ever expecting a swift resolution.
This excerpt is from an issue that published just a few months before the fastest financial changes to occur in the U.S. in the past 80 years.

The financial world doesn't seem to feel major rumblings right now. And that's why so many can be lulled into a false sense of financial security.

Yet, EWI's economic indicators suggest that the next slippage of the financial plates could unleash far more financial destruction than before.

Now is the time to learn to prepare your portfolio by thinking differently than the rest of the pack.


Learn to Think Independently
You'll get some of the most groundbreaking and eye-opening reports ever published in Elliott Wave International's 30-year history; you'll also get new analysis, forecasts and commentary to help you think independently in today's tumultuous market.
Download Your Free 50-Page Independent Investor eBook Now >>

Monday, August 20, 2012

The Commodity Markets Take No Prisoners

"The Commodity Markets Take No Prisoners"
Do you have what it takes to succeed despite losing trades? Peter Brandt does -- and shares some of his insights in this FREE report.
By Elliott Wave International

When you trade with the Elliott Wave Principle, you must understand that recognizing a chart pattern is only part of the process. Read more.

MF Global Got Away With It!

According to the NY Times ...

"A criminal investigation into the collapse of the brokerage firm MF Global and the disappearance of about $1 billion in customer money is now heading into its final stage without charges expected against any top executives."

See for yourself!  

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/08/15/no-criminal-case-is-likely-in-loss-at-mf-global/

Friday, August 17, 2012

Sentiment Measure Shows No Fear of Major U.S. Stock Decline

Sentiment Measure Shows No Fear of Major U.S. Stock Decline
If investors are climbing a "wall of worry," where's the evidence?
By Elliott Wave International

The stock market's recent rally has seemed to ignore Europe's debt crisis and the weak U.S. economy, and in turn commentators have dusted off an old Wall Street phrase: wall of worry.. Read more.



Thursday, August 16, 2012

Single- and Multi-Bar Price Analysis: Could It Help You Forecast the Markets?

Traders,
 
Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy has spent over 15 years developing techniques to "read between the lines" on a price chart, and he shares some of his techniques with you in a FREE eBook: Learn to Identify High Confidence Trading Opportunities Using Price Bars and Chart Patterns.

You'd be amazed at how a simple price bar can provide you with so much information that can improve your trading success. In this excerpt from his eBook, Jeffrey explains how to interpret price bars and what that means for the subsequent market moves. Learn how you can download the entire 14-page eBook below.



Here's a picture of two different price bars that we will consider to be daily price bars. What story does the single price bar on the left tell you?


Prices opened that day at the lowest price and closed at the highest price, which means that the buyers, or bulls, are in total control of the market. The bears have no power whatsoever, and, because the market closed so high, odds are that the price will continue up the next day. As I said, one price bar can give you tons of information about a financial market.

Now, look at the price bar on the right. It tells you a similar story in the opposite direction. Once the market opened, it got slammed to the down side. It stayed down hard all day and closed on the lows. A market like this is dominated by the bears, the sellers, and odds favor further decline the following day. It means that the bulls, or the buyers, have no control in this market.

Although these kinds of price bars are fairly rare, they may open your eyes to how much information a single price bar can contain, especially if you know how to interpret it.
These two price bars are more like what you will encounter every day.


The price bar on the left side shows that the bears, or the sellers, opened the market up and pushed it down a little bit. In a sense, they had some control, but not much. Then the buyers, or the bulls, took control of this market so that it closed above the open. This type of price bar shows up in an uptrending market.

Conversely, the price bar on the right often shows up in downtrending markets. It signifies that the bears control the market. You could say that the buyers gave it a feeble attempt early on, but by the close, the sellers had taken over. Closes don't lie, and they are the most important item on the price chart.


Learn to Identify High Confidence Trading Opportunities Using Price Bars and Chart Patterns

When you look at a price chart, can you quickly spot the dominant trend? What about important reversals, or possible support/resistance levels?

EWI has just released a free 14-page eBook: Learn to Identify High Confidence Trading Opportunities Using Price Bars and Chart Patterns. Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy has spent over 15 years developing techniques to "read between the lines" on a price chart, and he shares some of his techniques with you in this new resource. You'll be amazed at how a simple price chart can provide you so much information that can improve your trading success.
Learn how to get your free eBook >>


Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Forex Journey is on Facebook and Twitter

Traders!!

Be sure to follow me on Facebook and Twitter (@GLMacroFX).  


Using Momentum Analysis To Make Elliott Wave Trading Decisions

Momentum Analysis Using MACD

Learn more about using Momentum analysis to make Elliott wave trading decisions in this video by EWI European Interest Rate Analyst Bill Fox. Find more lessons on technical indicators in EWI's newest free report. See the information below.

Learn the Best Technical Indicators for Successful Trading


In this free report, you will learn the tools of the trade directly from the analysts at Elliott Wave International. This free report uses both video lessons and reports to teach you how to incorporate technical indicators into your analysis to improve your trading decisions. Get your technical indicators report now.

Trading Psychology: Don'T Trade With Your Ego

Elliott Wave Junctures editor Jeffrey Kennedy talks about "the elephant in the room" that no trader can ignore.
By Elliott Wave International

Read an excerpt and see what sets Jeffrey's educational service apart -- his unique ability to combine easy-to-understand, actionable advice along with a no-nonsense, uncensored look at trading psychology. Read more.


Friday, August 10, 2012

One Trader's Forex Journey

Traders,

I encourage all of you on your own personal 'Forex Journey' to take the time and read this excellent article on one Forex trader's journey to profits.

http://www.moneyshow.com/trading/article/26/currency-28845/One-Forex-Traders-Journey-to-Profits/?aid=currency-28845&iid=currency&page=1



Thursday, August 09, 2012

The 3-Year Rally: If Doesn't Have to End This Way - Or Does It?

The 3-Year Rally: It Doesn't Have to End This Way - Or Does It? 
The market's trend is set to accelerate 
August 09, 2012

By Elliott Wave International

Is it wise to forecast financial markets based on what central bankers say?
Look no further than a chart of long-term stock market prices for the answer: No major trend change ever followed any of those announcements.

Even so, the financial media spends obscene amounts of time analyzing every utterance of central bankers, especially during the past few years of global economic distress.
Elliott Wave International takes a different approach:
The positive seasonals at the end of July, beginning of August are now dissipating...Equally important, a whole host of inter-market divergences are occurring.

The Fed made their announcement today, the ECB's governing council meets tomorrow and the U.S. unemployment statistics are posted on Friday. These seem to be the main focus of the financial media. On the other hand, our focus is on the markets and in particular, the wave structure.
The Financial Forecast Short Term Update, August 1
That issue of the Short Term Update shows charts of the Dow's and S&P 500's wave structure, and it provides insightful commentary about a high-confidence near-term forecast.

The quote above mentions "a whole host of inter-market divergences." The chart below from the Aug. 1 Short Term Update reveals one of them:


The publication adds:
Each successive up leg within the push from early June has occurred with slightly lesser upside momentum...This chart, which we published Monday (July 30), shows the percentage of S&P stocks above their 10-day moving average. By this measure, the most recent rise from July 24 has been the weakest so far.
Please note that this analysis makes no mention of comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke or European Central Bank President Mario Draghi.

The U.S. stock market rally that began in March 2009 is now more than three years old. Yet many experts forecast that the trend will continue higher.

You deserve an independent alternative to the conventional wisdom. See what we see in the Elliott wave pattern to learn where prices are headed from here.


Learn to Think Independently

You'll get some of the most groundbreaking and eye-opening reports ever published in Elliott Wave International's 30-year history; you'll also get new analysis, forecasts and commentary to help you think independently in today's tumultuous market.
Download Your Free 50-Page Independent Investor eBook Now >>

Eurozone Endgame

Traders,

Below is a link to an intersting video on what a Eurozone Exit may look like.  

Enjoy:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Py3OOCRLYew&feature=player_embedded

Wednesday, August 08, 2012

Elliott Wave Trading Q&A: Instruction AND Application from Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy


Hear tips on technical indicators and about how to improve your trading with Kennedy's educational service.
By Elliott Wave International

"If I'm going to be able to empower my subscribers, which is what I'm passionate about, I want to teach them to do it for themselves." -Jeffrey Kennedy
Read more.

Monday, August 06, 2012

Market Rally or Not?

With no action in August from the FOMC and only rhetoric coming from the ECB the market is starving for positive data.  Just check out this post on Zero Hedge on the baffling nature of the market this summer ...


I am personally looking to Elliott Wave Principals supported by Fibonacci confluence zones to control my trading action.

Happy Trading!!



The Surge in U.S. Markets: "The Stage is Being Set"


Deploying the Elliott Wave Principle to analyze correlating markets is my leading tool in bringing leading indicators into my daily trading routine.  Check out the post below from Elliott Wave International and see if you can utilize the Elliott Wave Principle in increasing your probability...


The Surge Higher in U.S. Markets: "The Stage is Being Set" 

The market's main trend stays the same. 
August 03, 2012

By Elliott Wave International

Elliott Wave International has long observed that external events do not alter the dominant trend of financial markets -- not even major events like wars, natural disasters, terrorist attacks, political assassinations or any other news that makes headlines.
Now, it is true that news can sometimes have a near-term effect on market prices.
The July 26 opening bell is an example.
Dow Surges 200 Points on Draghi Comments, Jobless Claims
That's from The Wall Street Journal. The text reads:
Europe's top central banker sparked a global rally in stocks after reassuring investors the Continent's central bank would be vigilant about holding together the euro zone.... European Central Bank President Mario Draghi...said the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the common-currency union.
The article adds that "the number of U.S. workers filing for unemployment benefits fell for the fourth time in five weeks, to a level that was far lower than expected."
EWI expected a near-term bounce in stock prices -- just one day ago.
On July 25, EWI's Financial Forecast Short Term Update said this to subscribers:
Near term, there may be a few more days of bounce. The stock market is setting the stage...
The Update went on to describe what the stock market is setting the stage for. It is not what most investors expect.
The pattern in the major U.S. stock indexes has been 80 years in the making -- which is to say, the pattern is unfolding at a large degree of trend.

You Can Be Ready for the Market Changes Ahead.

Let Elliott Wave International change the way you see the markets forever. Right now, our 50-page Independent Investor eBook is available to download FREE.
You'll get some of the most groundbreaking and eye-opening reports ever published in Elliott Wave International's 30-year history; you'll also get analysis, forecasts and commentary to help you think independently in today's tumultuous market.
Learn to think differently about the markets. Download the 50-page Independent Investor eBook now >>